of executives first hear about a geopolitical shock from news media.
McKinsey 2026
Geopolitical Decision Intelligence
What if you knew
what happens tomorrow?
OmegaNova forecasts how geopolitical developments could affect your business, with three ranked scenarios and the indicators to monitor.
Fredrik AhlénFounder & CEO
25 years in executive security.
4,000+ field operations.
Companies learn about geopolitical events
too late to act on them
to calculate what the event does to the business once it has happened.
PwC 2026written down by European companies in 2026 on exposure they had not hedged.
BloombergWhere this happens
A shipping corridor closes. Freight and fuel prices rise and production stops.
Unrest begins in a country where the company operates.
A security incident affects a site or public event the company is responsible for.
Compare what could happen
before deciding how to act.
Signals across nine domains.
Connect signals across risk domains and different schools of analysis.
Three competing paths.
Weigh competing paths and show the assumptions behind them.
A record of calls and misses.
Date the assessment. Compare it with subsequent events. Record misses.
Three assessments, issued and timestamped
before the events
Iran Regime Stress
Nationwide protest escalation flagged at a 92% early-warning score, while the baseline still read stability.
85 days
Forecast · 4 Oct 2025Protest onset · 28 Dec
DRC ADF Attack, Mbau
Actor, geography, target profile and risk window identified — not generic instability.
6 days
Forecast · 8 Sep 2025Attack · Mbau/Beni
Ukraine Shostka Rail Strike
Strike on rail infrastructure matched the leading path, held at 68% probability.
84 hours
Forecast · path P1Strike · 4 Oct 2025
Four paying users,
since launch in June 2026
4
paying
users
First contract signed June 2026 with a Swedish public agency.
7 pilots running
Fortune 500 companies in automotive, energy and defence.
42 in the late-stage pipeline
In active dialogue across the Nordics and the EU.
3 signed resellers
Risk advisories taking the product to their own clients.
Everyone collects.
The processing is the difference.
Consultancies
Expert analysis
- What you receive
- An analyst’s written assessment, tailored to the brief.
- How you decide
- Expert interpretation and recommendations.
- How it is revisited
- Reviewed or updated through the advisory engagement.
Alert services
Collection and monitoring
- What you receive
- Feeds, alerts and dashboard scores.
- How you decide
- Shows what happened. The customer assesses the implications.
- How it is revisited
- New signals trigger new alerts and refreshed scores.
OmegaNova
Processing and accountability
- What you receive
- Three ranked scenarios, with probabilities and business impact.
- How you decide
- Dated reasoning, sources, uncertainty and indicators to monitor.
- How it is revisited
- Judgements scored against events, with a public track record.
Recurring subscription
and license partners.
Entry pricing is below the Swedish public procurement threshold.
Subscriptions
ProfessionalEntry
€900per user, per monthBelow the Swedish public procurement threshold.
Team
€2,700per user, multi-user teamMulti-user deployment with custom scenario triggers.
Enterprise
€10–15kper site, organisation-wideOrganisation-wide licence, ERP integration, dedicated SLA.
Who it’s for
Head of security
Prioritise protection for people and sites with early warnings.
Chief financial officer
Assess financial exposure and compare contingency costs.
Supply chain
Anticipate route and supplier disruptions, and plan alternatives.
Public sector buyer
Prepare traceable risk assessments for planning and procurement.
Win accounts directly.
Scale through specialist partners.
Win accounts
Start with security teams. Turn a focused operating question into a trial, a paid pilot and a recurring subscription.
Expand usage
Add decision owners, operating sites and tailored scenario triggers as the customer’s use expands.
Scale via partners
Reach new buyers through specialist risk advisers with local intelligence and established client relationships.
01 / Initial focus Active
Nordics & Baltics
02 / Partner expansion
Middle East & wider Europe
03 / Longer-term reach
NATO partner markets
A path to €23.1m ARR.
Forecast · August 2029Modelled average monthly price
~€900 → ~€2,700
September 2026 → February 2028ARR · € MILLION
83active licences
~€1,800 / licence / month
308active licences
~€2,700 / licence / month
712active licences
~€2,700 / licence / month
83 active licences
~€1,800 / licence / month308 active licences
~€2,700 / licence / month712 active licences
~€2,700 / licence / month100+ years of combined
experience from the field.
Founder & CEO
Fredrik Ahlén
4,000+ missions. Led high-risk operations in Somalia, Iraq and Afghanistan for the Swedish Foreign Ministry, Microsoft, Sinch and Alstom. A decade leading executive security for listed multinationals. ICoCA Board.
CTO
Peter Sulin
Co-founded and scaled Intelliplan through exit. SaaS architecture and product execution.
Executive Board Advisor
Per Holmgren
Enterprise and public-sector sales, executive relationships and market access.
Chairman
Anders Lundström
Took two companies public—one as CEO, one as chairman. Technology company building and commercialisation.
Turn paid pilots
into recurring subscriptions.
Build a repeatable
international business.
Channel team
~€164kTwo roles from January; four from April 2027.
Sales & marketing
~€100kProduct & technology
~€95k83active licences
€1.8mARR